The Impact of the US-China Trade War on Global Investment Strategies
The ongoing US-China trade war is having a significant impact on global investment strategies, particularly for Non-Resident Indian (NRI) investors. As the world’s two largest economies engage in a bitter battle over tariffs and trade policies, the ripple effects are being felt far beyond Washington and Beijing.

Risks and Opportunities for NRI Investors

While the US-China trade war presents both risks and opportunities for NRI investors, it’s essential to understand the potential consequences of this escalating geopolitical standoff.

• The US-China trade war can disrupt global supply chains, dampen investor sentiment, and weigh on global growth.
• Estimates suggest that the odds of a US recession between 40–60%.
• The downstream effects of a US recession could be significant, including capital flows to emerging markets to the outlook on global equities and debt.

Practical Tips for NRI Investors

Vaibhav Porwal, Co-Founder of Dezerv, shares practical tips on how NRI investors can navigate the complex landscape:

• Reallocate part of your portfolio from global equities to safer fixed-income instruments or gold during a tariff war.
• Consider locking in a portion of your portfolio in medium-duration bonds (2–3 year range) to benefit from the falling rate environment.
• Allocate 5-10% of your portfolio to gold as a strategic cushion against geopolitical and currency risks.
• Geographical diversification will not help in a long-term trade war, but asset class diversification will.
• Ensure that your portfolio is sufficiently exposed to countries with heavier reliance on domestic consumption.

India’s Manufacturing Ascent

The US-China trade war presents an opportunity for India to benefit as a manufacturing alternative. With the government’s ambitions clear: grow manufacturing’s share of GDP to 25%, India is in the right place at the right time.

International Investment Opportunities

While mutual funds remain HNIs preferred vehicle for investing in equities, there are limitations on taking exposure towards international equity through Mutual funds. However, through GIFT city, many wealth and asset managers are planning to create funds which will invest in global equities.

Client Acquisition and Service Strategies

The rise of wealth in India’s Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities has broadened our client base dramatically across 200+ cities. Our strategy is inherently tech-first, leveraging digital channels to ensure seamless service delivery, yet we also recognize that personal touch matters.

Asset Allocation and Market Outlook

For investors planning to invest $10,000 in India, a disciplined investment strategy is essential. Equity investments should be staggered over the next few months to smooth out market fluctuations. Large-caps present an appealing opportunity as they are currently fairly priced.

Conclusion

The US-China trade war is reshaping global investment strategies, and NRIs must adapt to this new landscape. By diversifying their portfolios, leveraging India’s manufacturing ascent, and staying informed about market trends, NRIs can navigate the complex and ever-changing investment environment.